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The Future of Foresight: From Globalization to Planetarization and New Approaches to Foresight

Experts from different countries discussed how strategic thinking is changing in the face of global challenges at a session “Futures Studies: a New Agenda” took place in the framework of the XXV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference.

The Future of Foresight: From Globalization to Planetarization and New Approaches to Foresight

American expert Victor Motti from Alternative Planetary Futures Institute proposed the concept of planetarization - a new stage in the development of human consciousness, which is replacing globalization. In his opinion, the world is interconnected too closely to return to isolation, but old approaches no longer work. Digital technologies and new values ​​— caring for the planet, space exploration — can become the basis for a new ethic and global cooperation. Motti’s thoughts rely on the noosphere ideas — the “the Earth thinking shell,” described by Vladimir Vernadsky at the beginning of the last century.

Hungarian scholar Attila Havas spoke about challenges that modern foresight faces. He noted that public interest in foresight has declined in recent years. "Perhaps the observed 'fading' of foresight should be viewed not as a crisis of academic foresight, but as a chance to rethink a technology that has not changed in the last 10-15 years. It is precisely the last few years that have been especially rich in unforeseen challenges, so-called jokers, and new threats," explained Havas. According to the expert, new tools for foresight studies will appear in the next decade: crisis analytics, joker monitoring, socially oriented approaches. Foresight must adapt to the needs of new customers, such as those who are stressed by the sense of time slipping away and the world changing rapidly. In the future, Havas believes, AI may become not just a tool, but a full-fledged foresight participant.

Canadian scientist Jonathan Calof highlighted the importance of combining foresight and competitive intelligence, two approaches that help identify threats and opportunities. According to Calof, many of the analytical methods of foresight can be successfully applied in competitive intelligence. He called for overcoming the existing academic mistrust between these areas and proposed conducting joint studies. This initiative was supported by Alexander Sokolov, Deputy Director of HSE University Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.

British expert Ian Miles concluded the session with a report on the convergence of technology foresight and technology assessment. If previously these methods existed separately - one to support research, the other to analyze the social consequences of technologies, today they are increasingly combined., According to Miles this reflects the need to address complex challenges where both technological and social aspects are important: “Technology assessment emerged in the 1960s as a tool for monitoring rapid technological change and social and environmental problems that arose with it. Technology foresight developed in the 1990s as an institutional response to increased competition between countries. In XXI century, these instruments have converged, although some of the previous differences remain. In particular, technology assessment is more successful in addressing social and environmental development issues, while technology foresight is better at identifying risks and opportunities of new technologies. In general, modern foresight is drifting towards constructive technology assessment."

The session showed that to look into the future effectively, humanity needs to update not only its tools, but also its thinking itself, taking into account new ethics, challenges and values ​​on a planetary scale.